JEWISH FEDERATION OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY STATEMENT ON IRAN NUCLEAR AGREEMENT

July 30, 2015

As Americans, as advocates for Israel and a strong US-Israel relationship, and as citizens who yearn for a peaceful Middle East, the Iran Nuclear Agreement is of great importance and concern to our Jewish community.

Our Jewish Federation has long considered the prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons to be a matter of the gravest concern and utmost urgency; there is a strong consensus that preventing a nuclear Iran best serves the interests of the United States, Israel, the other neighboring Middle East countries, and the world. Upon announcement of the Agreement reached on July 14, 2015 by the P5+1 countries (United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, and Russia) and Iran we issued a statement expressing our apprehension about the Agreement and called on Congress to exercise its due diligence and undertake a nonpartisan vigorous review of the Agreement.

Following a process of consultation by our professional staff and our Community Relations Council to better understand the Agreement, we take this opportunity to further express our deep concerns with the vulnerabilities of this Agreement.

As preface, we share the goal of achieving a negotiated, peaceful solution to Iran's nuclear activities. We support the efforts of President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry to arrive at a diplomatic solution, and we are grateful for their sincere and tireless efforts. We also acknowledge that there are diverse views within our community, but ultimately this issue must remain above politics and reflect our collective determination to ensure a stronger agreement with one of the world's most dangerous regimes.

Serious and reasonable people and organizations have articulated why this Agreement is in the interests of the United States and our partners. They emphasize that, even if flawed, this deal if properly implemented presents an opportunity to curtail the threat of a nuclear Iran for at least a decade. At the same time, others of similar integrity have raised serious questions regarding the vulnerabilities of this agreement, many flatly rejecting the Agreement.

We believe the matters outlined below to be of particular concern and require direct and comprehensive resolution by Congress and the Administration. 

Iran is not required to dismantle their enrichment infrastructure, is allowed to continue at least limited research and development on advanced centrifuges, and will be permitted to build as large an industrial nuclear program as they want after year 15. The Agreement does not foreclose Iran's ability to obtain a nuclear weapon. At best, it delays it for about 10 years, at which time Iran could become a threshold nuclear state with a narrowing gap, and increasing capability, to reach nuclear weapons capability.

The "teeth" in the Agreement is ostensibly the ability for sanctions to "snap back", even over the objections of Iran and some of the P5+1 nations, should Iran fail to meet its responsibilities. The complexity of the system of a "snap back" of sanctions might encourage Iran to cheat or inhibit their application. Many have expressed concerns that the snap back of sanctions, the only remedy available to the P5+1 under this Agreement, must be strengthened, straightforward, and enforced with immediate resolve.

Much of the sanctions relief will occur fairly quickly, in as little as six months after the Agreement takes effect. Iran, aside from being able to sell its oil, will regain access to as much as $150 billion in frozen accounts in the coming year. Even if only a small percentage of these funds are used to support Iran's regional aggression and anti-American platform, the potential result is a staggering infusion of resources - including cash and weapons - to such actors as the Assad regime in Syria, the terrorist organizations Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian areas.

There are significant questions about the quality of the inspection regime in the Agreement, including the timeliness of access to suspect sites, talk by Iranians of "managed access," and questions about the exclusion of U.S. inspectors in these processes. The Agreement fails to provide for full and immediate inspections of undeclared nuclear facilities and adequate disclosure of prior military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program.

Most worrisome is a commitment to lift the conventional arms embargo on Iran in no more than five years, and the embargo on ballistic missile sales to Iran in no more than eight years, and possibly sooner. Disappointingly, there are no limitations on Iran's ability to export such weapons to further threaten Israel and destabilize the region.

It is incumbent for Congress to use this review period to work with the Administration to articulate a viable U.S. strategy which meets the goals originally set by President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry: shut down Iran's uranium enrichment pathway to a weapon; cut off all of Iran's potential pathways to a nuclear bomb; and track Iran's nuclear activities with unprecedented transparency and robust inspections throughout its nuclear supply chain. We believe these goals remain in everyone's best interests.

It weighs heavily on us that the risks of this Agreement, as it currently stands, will primarily fall upon long-standing allies of the United States living in closer proximity to Iran. We take particular note that there is broad unity amongst the people of Israel, well beyond the current government and Prime Minister, including the leaders of the two major opposition parties, Zionist Union and Yesh Atid, who have expressed grave concerns about the proposed deal and what it could mean for Israel's security. We are alarmed that Iran continues to speak of genocidal destruction of Israel and the United States. We believe, and reaffirm, that a vital U.S. interest must be to consider the concerns and address the strategic threats to our regional partners in setting our own foreign policy course. 

We encourage the President to heed the voices of those that are concerned over this Agreement and seriously address those concerns. As Congress reviews the Agreement, we urge the Pennsylvania delegation to fully investigate the flaws noted above and to only endorse an Agreement complete with significant, specific, and binding solutions to the concerns that we, and so many in our community, have about this Agreement.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

On July 14, 2015, the P5+1 (the US, UK, China, Russia, France and Germany – with EU facilitation) announced the finalization of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement with Iran over its nuclear program. The final agreement, which emerged after 20 months of negotiations, significantly scales back Iran’s nuclear program for a period of 10 to 15 years, in exchange for the lifting sanctions against Iran. 

Now that the P5+1 and Iran have announced a final nuclear agreement, the attention turns to the U.S. Congress. Because the deal was completed, and submitted to, Congress after July 9 (one of the original deadlines), the House and Senate have 60 days to review the final agreement. Instead of rushing to review and vote on the deal before leaving Washington, D.C. for August recess, members of Congress will head home and—for nearly a month—undoubtedly hear from engaged constituents arguing for or against the deal.

Some members of Congress are primed for opposition, and should a deal stick to the framework announced in April; we can expect real, substantive debate. Congress will either pass a resolution of disapproval or a motion of approval. Here are the five paths Congressional review could take:

Veto-proof resolution of disapproval: To stymie the agreement, two-thirds of both the House and the Senate would have to vote to override a presidential veto — an unlikely if not impossible scenario, especially since 145 members of the House Democratic caucus sent a letter in May to the president pledging support. In the Senate, however, the vote could be much closer, and the opponents of the deal could potentially garner the two-thirds needed to override a presidential veto. 

Low-grade support for motion of approval: Anticipating that they will not amass enough votes to override a veto, GOP leaders are weighing a legislative strategy that would show that only a minority of legislators support the deal. A resolution of approval that wins scarcely 40 votes in the Senate would signal to the international community that the American people object to the deal — not a welcome message in the view of the Administration.

Overwhelming support for motion of approval: This is about as unlikely as a veto-proof resolution of disapproval. Some Members of Congress are politicizing the issue, but many more, from both parties, take seriously the warnings of a variety of experts and of America’s allies in the Middle East, and have real concerns.

Other legislative initiatives to make a point: Strong public disapproval could inspire a bipartisan effort to strengthen sanctions on Iran related to other Iranian activity. Already, Senators Menendez and Kirk have introduced a bill to renew terrorism-related sanctions on Iran for another decade. If there is a deal, we’ll see if this bill gathers steam or fizzles.

No quick action: As often happens with Congress, politics and procedure may mire the process and result in delay.

According to the US Administration:

• Iran will reduce the number of operating centrifuges at its Natanz facility by two-thirds to 5,060.
• Iran’s uranium enrichment will be capped at 3.67 percent, and its stockpile reduced by 98 percent to 300 kilograms for a period of 15 years. Iran will either dilute or ship out of the country the remainder of its enriched uranium.
• The underground enrichment Fordo facility will be turned into a nuclear physics research center.
• The heavy-water reactor in the Arak facility will be re-engineered to prevent it from producing sufficient amounts of plutonium for a nuclear bomb.
• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors will continuously monitor Iran’s declared nuclear facilities. Iran has also agreed to implement the additional protocol to the IAEA Safeguards Agreement which will allow inspectors to access and inspect sites they deem suspicious.
• Once the IAEA confirms that Iran has held up these and other commitments contained within the deal, the UN Security Council (UNSC) will vote on a resolution to void all previous UNSC resolutions, thereby lifting oil and financial sanctions. There will also be a gradual lifting of the international arms embargo against Iran.
• If a P5+1 state suspects an Iranian violation of the agreement and the agreed dispute resolution process does not resolve the issue, the UNSC will vote on a resolution to continue the sanctions lifting.  If that resolution is not adopted, UNSC sanctions against Iran will be re-imposed.

What the US government is saying:

President Obama has called the agreement “a comprehensive long-term deal with Iran that will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” He added that “Because of this deal, the international community will be able to verify that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not develop a nuclear weapon…[the deal] is not built on trust. It’s built on verification.”  

What the Israeli government is saying:

Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected the agreement, calling it a “stunning historic mistake.” Israeli political leaders from across the political spectrum have also expressed opposition to the deal.

JEWISH FEDERATION OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY STATEMENT ON IRAN NUCLEAR AGREEMENT
 

July 14, 2015

On July 14, the United States alongside its P5+1 partners announced an unprecedented deal to address the challenging and complex issue of the Iranian nuclear threat. The Jewish Federation of the Lehigh Valley looks forward to learning more concrete details about the accord in the coming weeks as we seek to understand its implications and its efficacy.
 
A diplomatic resolution to the threat of a nuclear Iran has always been the preferred option. The Jewish Federation recognizes the committed efforts that President Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and the team of diplomats have taken to achieve a peaceful resolution to the threat that Iran will obtain a nuclear weapon.
 
At the same time, and despite these efforts, we have cause to be wary. While negotiating this agreement, Iran has continued to fund terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah, threatened annihilation of Israel and worked to destabilize neighboring countries in the region. Iran is not a country that has earned anyone's trust. Consequently, we welcome debate on the merits of the agreement and close scrutiny by Congress. The 60-day Congressional review window opens a critical period to examine the agreement and ensure that it has the rigorous inspection and compliance components that are necessary.
 
The threat of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons is a matter of the deepest concern and utmost urgency to the world. Now, with the completion of the accord between the P5+1 countries and Iran, it is critical that the world stay focused on the ultimate goal:  preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons by all means.
 
We call upon the United States, the European Union and the United Nations to provide the necessary resources, structures and capabilities that are required to ensure Iran's full compliance with an agreement. The diplomatic and economic pressures applied by these bodies were successful in bringing Iran to the table to negotiate. The same concerted effort must be used to ensure that Iran will never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons capability.